The conflict in Iran has disrupted flights across the Middle East, stranding thousands of passengers in hubs such as Doha and Dubai. Rising oil prices tied to the unrest have prompted some international carriers to raise fares, leaving travelers to decide whether to book now or wait.
Jet fuel is one of airlines’ largest costs, and carriers including Qantas, Scandinavian Airlines, and Air New Zealand have already increased ticket prices this week to help offset higher fuel expenses. U.S. airlines have not broadly announced similar hikes yet, but analysis from Skift Research indicates U.S. fares would need to rise by roughly 11% to cover the current fuel cost jump—so American travelers could see increases soon.
Market watchers warn the situation is uncertain and volatile. “The situation remains uncertain and fluid,” says Volodymyr Bilotkach, associate professor at Purdue University’s aviation school. “Things can change at any time without much of a warning.”
Why long-haul fares may climb
Average ticket prices may not spike immediately because airlines set schedules and fares months in advance. However, carriers can add fuel surcharges to new bookings on short notice. Fuel surcharges can amount to roughly 5–10% of an airfare. Importantly, airlines cannot tack these surcharges onto tickets already purchased, so travelers who’ve already booked spring or summer travel are protected from retroactive fuel fees.
Analysts expect fuel surcharges to appear first on long-haul itineraries if jet fuel prices keep rising, with domestic flights possible targets as well. Even if oil prices later normalize, the conflict could still push fares higher through reduced seat capacity. Cancelled flights that used Middle East hubs mean fewer long-haul routes, fuller planes, and more competition for remaining seats. Passengers who normally connect through Doha or Dubai may seek alternate routes via Europe, further increasing demand on those routes. Rebookings from cancellations also concentrate demand on limited seats, which tends to raise fares.
Will U.S. flight costs rise?
U.S. carriers haven’t broadly raised fares so far, but that could change quickly. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said raising fares in response to higher fuel prices would “probably start quick.” Delta declined to speculate on future pricing, noting fares vary by market and are influenced by supply, demand, fuel, seasonality, and competition.
Experts say more airlines may introduce surcharges within weeks if the conflict continues. Bilotkach expects airfares to move higher within about a month, likely via fuel surcharges; even after hostilities ease, oil and jet fuel prices could remain elevated for weeks or months.
Should you buy now or wait?
To navigate volatile pricing, industry analysts advise locking in fares early for upcoming summer travel. If you haven’t booked, do so now—preferably sooner rather than later. Many carriers haven’t added surcharges yet, making the present a favorable booking window.
Guidelines from fare-watch sites suggest booking domestic trips 3–7 months ahead and international travel 4–10 months ahead to find the best prices; we are near the tail end of those windows for summer travel. While immediate impacts on fares aren’t guaranteed overnight, the uncertainty around the conflict makes waiting risky: travelers could face not only higher base fares but added fees later.
As benchmarks, Going.com’s data suggests a good summer deal from major U.S. cities to Europe is around $600 roundtrip, and about $900 roundtrip from smaller cities—useful targets when comparing fares. Overall, with potential surcharges and capacity shifts looming, buying sooner to lock a reasonable fare is the recommended approach.
